Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
